Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clemson, while the market favors Georgia Tech (61%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Clemson (-17.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clemson (78%) · Clemson at 40¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Clemson40¢Georgia Tech60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clemson

Consensus Traders

Clemson 78%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$0.05

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 39.5¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clemson40%

Georgia Tech61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech2 traders

Total Value$626.73

Total Shares1,099

Combined PnL-$10.88

Clemson7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,489

Combined PnL+$10.93

Georgia Tech — 22%Clemson — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Georgia Techavg 58¢	$613.15	$602.58	-$10.57	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 42¢	$423.2	$433.35	+$10.16	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
RN1CTR	Clemsonavg 43¢	$358.62	$354.45	-$4.17	55% 5370-4319 (9689)
VE VenusianCTR	Clemsonavg 43¢	$158.02	$159.86	+$1.84	36% 953-1669 (2622)
PR primmCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 41¢	$55.41	$58.11	+$2.7	59% 931-653 (1584)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 43¢	$41.83	$42.32	+$0.49	36% 937-1647 (2584)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Georgia Techavg 58.2¢	$24.46	$24.15	-$0.31	54% 286-244 (530)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 43¢	$15.91	$15.73	-$0.18	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 42¢	$4.23	$4.33	+$0.1	52% 1734-1576 (3310)

HomeRunHazard

Georgia Tech

Invested

$613.15

Value

$602.58

PnL

-$10.57

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$423.2

Value

$433.35

PnL

+$10.16

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

RN1CTR

Clemson

Invested

$358.62

Value

$354.45

PnL

-$4.17

Record

55%

5370-4319 (9689)

VenusianCTR

Clemson

Invested

$158.02

Value

$159.86

PnL

+$1.84

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

primmCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$55.41

Value

$58.11

PnL

+$2.7

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

LimousinCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$41.83

Value

$42.32

PnL

+$0.49

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$24.46

Value

$24.15

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$15.91

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$0.18

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.33

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 61%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clemson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.