Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Georgia Tech, while the market favors Clemson (50%). 0 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Clemson (-15.5)
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (33%) · Georgia Tech at 50¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Georgia Tech
9
Georgia Tech 33%
$41.7K
$1.4K
50.7¢ → 50¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGeorgia Tech at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Clemson 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Georgia Techavg 51¢ | $13.9K | $15.3K | +$1.4K | 50% 2529-2490 (5019) |
DO Donkey14 | Clemsonavg 49¢ | $13.4K | $13.5K | +$136.35 | 32% 7-15 (22) |
JU justwins | Georgia Techavg 50¢ | $6.2K | $6.2K | +$0 | 50% 118-116 (234) |
BO Bozos14 | Clemsonavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$50 | 6% 9-132 (141) |
 FaroeseNationalist | Clemsonavg 50¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$11.11 | 51% 18-17 (35) |
 0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492 | Clemsonavg 50¢ | $263.43 | $258.16 | -$5.27 | 1% 3-326 (329) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382 | Clemsonavg 50¢ | $190 | $188.1 | -$1.9 | 48% 288-310 (598) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Georgia Techavg 50¢ | $98 | $98 | +$0 | 51% 568-535 (1103) |
0X 0x0A77exmm<$100 | Clemsonavg 48¢ | $69.23 | $69.95 | +$0.72 | 44% 44-57 (101) |
Invested
$13,917.45
Value
$15.3K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
50%
2529-2490 (5019)
Invested
$13,361.87
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$136.35
Record
32%
7-15 (22)
Invested
$6,247.2
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
118-116 (234)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$50
Record
6%
9-132 (141)
FaroeseNationalistInvested
$1,111
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$11.11
Record
51%
18-17 (35)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492Invested
$263.43
Value
$258.16
PnL
-$5.27
Record
1%
3-326 (329)
Invested
$190
Value
$188.1
PnL
-$1.9
Record
48%
288-310 (598)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$98
Value
$98
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
568-535 (1103)
Invested
$69.23
Value
$69.95
PnL
+$0.72
Record
44%
44-57 (101)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Georgia Tech — $15.3K
Donkey14
Clemson — $13.5K
justwins
Georgia Tech — $6.2K
Bozos14
Clemson — $5.0K
FaroeseNationalist
Clemson — $1.1K
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492
Clemson — $258.16
0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382
Clemson — $188.1
nigiri99
Georgia Tech — $98
0x0A77exmm
Clemson — $69.95