Spread: Clemson (-14.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (71%) · Georgia Tech at 55¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Georgia Tech
7
Georgia Tech 71%
$4.1K
-$5.97
54.2¢ → 54.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralGeorgia Tech at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Georgia Tech. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Georgia Techavg 54¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$0 | 57% 3445-2621 (6066) |
 VeryLucky888 | Georgia Techavg 54.7¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$16.04 | 52% 737-689 (1426) |
PL pltrkr111 | Georgia Techavg 54¢ | $1,000 | $1.0K | +$9.26 | 3% 18-524 (542) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Clemsonavg 45¢ | $28.35 | $28.67 | +$0.32 | 46% 433-502 (935) |
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR<$100 | Clemsonavg 44¢ | $12.65 | $13.08 | +$0.43 | 47% 20-23 (43) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Georgia Techavg 54¢ | $7.26 | $7.26 | +$0 | 53% 900-794 (1694) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Georgia Techavg 54¢ | $6.56 | $6.62 | +$0.06 | 55% 202-167 (369) |
Invested
$1,828.74
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
3445-2621 (6066)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,259.12
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$16.04
Record
52%
737-689 (1426)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$9.26
Record
3%
18-524 (542)
Invested
$28.35
Value
$28.67
PnL
+$0.32
Record
46%
433-502 (935)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$13.08
PnL
+$0.43
Record
47%
20-23 (43)
Invested
$7.26
Value
$7.26
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
900-794 (1694)
Invested
$6.56
Value
$6.62
PnL
+$0.06
Record
55%
202-167 (369)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.