Spread: Appalachian State (-6.5)

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia State (71%) · Georgia State at 54¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 7

Appalachian State46¢Georgia State54¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia State

Consensus Traders

Georgia State 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.9K

Combined PnL

$24.1K

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 54¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Appalachian State46%

Georgia State54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia State10 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares50,102

Combined PnL+$24.2K

Appalachian State4 traders

Total Value$885.33

Total Shares1,922

Combined PnL-$96.15

Georgia State — 71%Appalachian State — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HI hi774c	Georgia Stateavg 48.9¢	$10.6K	$11.7K	+$22.8K	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
HO HomeRunHazard	Georgia Stateavg 48.7¢	$9.6K	$10.6K	+$1.1K	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 50.5¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	+$8.4	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Appalachian State leg	Appalachian Stateavg 50.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$102.05
└ Georgia State leg	Georgia Stateavg 48.2¢	$811.29	$909.37	+$110.45
MA MadridTime	Georgia Stateavg 49.7¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$147	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
NO Notradecopy	Georgia Stateavg 49¢	$980.61	$1.1K	+$100.06	48% 4060-4345 (8405)
LI LightParadox	Georgia Stateavg 49.7¢	$759.82	$824.73	+$64.91	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBall	Georgia Stateavg 48.7¢	$733.35	$813.3	+$80.18	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Appalachian Stateavg 51¢	$539.1	$486.25	-$52.85	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
NM NM-PCTR	Appalachian Stateavg 51¢	$417.09	$376.31	-$40.78	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Georgia Stateavg 89¢	$80.91	$49.09	-$31.82	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
VeryLucky888	Georgia Stateavg 48.9¢	$1.5K	$35.36	+$5.2	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
GH ghorrock<$100	Georgia Stateavg 49¢	$26.34	$29.03	+$2.69	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 50.3¢	$25.18	$22.26	-$2.92	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RL RLWG<$100	Georgia Stateavg 49¢	$7.35	$8.1	+$0.75	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
RN1CTR<$100	Appalachian Stateavg 10¢	$0.11	$0.51	+$0.4	53% 63014-55227 (118241)

hi774c

Georgia State

Invested

$10,635.71

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$22.8K

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

HomeRunHazard

Georgia State

Invested

$9,580.46

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$2,683.61

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$8.4

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Appalachian State$1,149.750.5¢-$102.05

Georgia State$811.2948.2¢+$110.45

MadridTime

Georgia State

Invested

$1,720.68

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$147

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Notradecopy

Georgia State

Invested

$980.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$100.06

Record

48%

4060-4345 (8405)

LightParadox

Georgia State

Invested

$759.82

Value

$824.73

PnL

+$64.91

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBall

Georgia State

Invested

$733.35

Value

$813.3

PnL

+$80.18

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$539.1

Value

$486.25

PnL

-$52.85

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

NM-PCTR

Appalachian State

Invested

$417.09

Value

$376.31

PnL

-$40.78

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

6512395314597884<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$80.91

Value

$49.09

PnL

-$31.82

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

VeryLucky888

Georgia State

Invested

$1,459.48

Value

$35.36

PnL

+$5.2

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

ghorrock<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$26.34

Value

$29.03

PnL

+$2.69

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$25.18

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$2.92

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RLWG<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$7.35

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

RN1CTR<$100

Appalachian State

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.51

PnL

+$0.4

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.