Spread: Georgia Southern (-7.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia State (78%) · Georgia State at 57¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14

Georgia Southern43¢Georgia State57¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia State

Consensus Traders

Georgia State 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.0K

Combined PnL

-$126.66

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Southern43%

Georgia State57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Southern2 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares13,244

Combined PnL-$58.42

Georgia State7 traders

Total Value$7.1K

Total Shares12,580

Combined PnL-$68.23

Georgia Southern — 22%Georgia State — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Georgia State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia State 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGeorgia State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia State 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Georgia Southernavg 42.9¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$52.26	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazard	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$24.5	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774c	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$16.88	22% 179-618 (797)
VeryLucky888	Georgia Stateavg 57.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$20	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
38 38791873984189	Georgia Stateavg 56.7¢	$970.2	$966.32	-$3.88	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$270.6	$269.68	-$0.92	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Georgia State leg	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$199.5	$197.75	-$1.75
└ Georgia Southern leg	Georgia Southernavg 43¢	$71.1	$71.93	+$0.83
GC GC-P	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$199.5	$197.75	-$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Georgia Southernavg 43.9¢	$193.07	$186.9	-$6.17	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$94.62	$93.79	-$0.83	48% 286-306 (592)
PA Pan9X<$100	Georgia Stateavg 57¢	$45.03	$44.64	-$0.4	50% 1587-1614 (3201)

primmCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$5,494.22

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$52.26

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazard

Georgia State

Invested

$2,793

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$24.5

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774c

Georgia State

Invested

$1,923.78

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$16.88

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

VeryLucky888

Georgia State

Invested

$1,150

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

38791873984189

Georgia State

Invested

$970.2

Value

$966.32

PnL

-$3.88

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

NM-PARB<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$270.6

Value

$269.68

PnL

-$0.92

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Georgia State$199.557¢-$1.75

Georgia Southern$71.143¢+$0.83

GC-P

Georgia State

Invested

$199.5

Value

$197.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$193.07

Value

$186.9

PnL

-$6.17

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$94.62

Value

$93.79

PnL

-$0.83

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

Pan9X<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$45.03

Value

$44.64

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Georgia State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia State 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedGeorgia State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Georgia State 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.