Spread: Georgia Southern (-6.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia State (55%) · Georgia State at 55¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Georgia Southern46¢Georgia State54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia State

Consensus Traders

Georgia State 55%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

$361.54

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 54.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Southern46%

Georgia State55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Southern5 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares8,446

Combined PnL+$37.76

Georgia State6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares9,378

Combined PnL+$323.78

Georgia Southern — 45%Georgia State — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Georgia Southernavg 49¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$37.03	59% 931-653 (1584)
HO HomeRunHazard	Georgia Stateavg 51.1¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$161.82	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
nigiri99	Georgia Stateavg 51¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$132.83	51% 568-535 (1103)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Georgia Stateavg 51¢	$235.87	$252.06	+$16.19	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
GC GC-PCTR	Georgia Southernavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	37% 367-618 (985)
NM NM-PCTR	Georgia Southernavg 49¢	$171.5	$173.25	+$1.75	59% 3775-2600 (6375)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Georgia Southernavg 50¢	$127.1	$125.83	-$1.27	47% 99-111 (210)
38 38791873984189	Georgia Stateavg 50.6¢	$1.6K	$117.61	+$13.85	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Georgia Stateavg 51¢	$94.86	$93.93	-$0.93	48% 301-331 (632)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 47.7¢	$80.05	$44.01	-$1.51	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
GH ghorrock<$100	Georgia Stateavg 51¢	$7.6	$7.62	+$0.03	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

primmCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$3,629.23

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$37.03

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

HomeRunHazard

Georgia State

Invested

$2,408.67

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$161.82

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

nigiri99

Georgia State

Invested

$1,935.45

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$132.83

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Georgia State

Invested

$235.87

Value

$252.06

PnL

+$16.19

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

GC-PCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

NM-PCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$171.5

Value

$173.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

59%

3775-2600 (6375)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$127.1

Value

$125.83

PnL

-$1.27

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

38791873984189

Georgia State

Invested

$1,568.09

Value

$117.61

PnL

+$13.85

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$94.86

Value

$93.93

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

301-331 (632)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$80.05

Value

$44.01

PnL

-$1.51

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

ghorrock<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$7.6

Value

$7.62

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.