Spread: Texas State (-9.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Texas State (29%) · Texas State at 52¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Texas State
7
Texas State 29%
$12.7K
$0.9
52¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralTexas State at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Texas State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Texas Stateavg 52¢ | $6.7K | $6.7K | +$0 | 49% 261-275 (536) |
HI hi774cCTR | Fresno Stateavg 48¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$0 | 15% 85-486 (571) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Fresno Stateavg 48¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$0.18 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Fresno Stateavg 48¢ | $480 | $480 | +$0 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Fresno Stateavg 48¢ | $151.68 | $151.68 | +$0 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Texas Stateavg 48¢ | $8.64 | $9.36 | +$0.72 | 47% 350-393 (743) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Fresno Stateavg 48¢ | $5.98 | $5.98 | +$0 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$6,658.69
Value
$6.7K
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
261-275 (536)
Invested
$3,019.91
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
15%
85-486 (571)
Invested
$2,418.35
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$0.18
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$480
Value
$480
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$151.68
Value
$151.68
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$8.64
Value
$9.36
PnL
+$0.72
Record
47%
350-393 (743)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.98
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.