Florida State vs. Pittsburgh: O/U 53.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.17

Smart Money Entry

52.6¢ → 54.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,894

Combined PnL+$52.49

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,941

Combined PnL-$68.66

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35	Underavg 52.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$44.82	15% 10-56 (66)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.5¢	$957.71	$907.54	-$50.17	53% 1030-921 (1951)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47¢	$327.12	$313.2	-$13.92	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
FeedTheBigBird	Underavg 53¢	$174.46	$177.75	+$3.29	62% 21-13 (34)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$98.77	$94.56	-$4.2	43% 809-1065 (1874)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 47¢	$28.67	$32.94	+$4.27	57% 3561-2704 (6265)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 54¢	$11.74	$11.85	+$0.11	47% 191-212 (403)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$8.65	$8.28	-$0.37	65% 1855-995 (2850)

lightotunnel35

Under

Invested

$1,835.36

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$44.82

Record

15%

10-56 (66)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$957.71

Value

$907.54

PnL

-$50.17

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$327.12

Value

$313.2

PnL

-$13.92

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

FeedTheBigBird

Under

Invested

$174.46

Value

$177.75

PnL

+$3.29

Record

62%

21-13 (34)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$98.77

Value

$94.56

PnL

-$4.2

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$28.67

Value

$32.94

PnL

+$4.27

Record

57%

3561-2704 (6265)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$11.74

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$0.11

Record

47%

191-212 (403)

RLWGCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.65

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0.37

Record

65%

1855-995 (2850)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.