Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Pittsburgh, while the market favors Florida State (51%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Pittsburgh (-3.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Pittsburgh (100%) · Pittsburgh at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Pittsburgh
6
Pittsburgh 100%
$2.3K
$72.05
48¢ → 49.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralPittsburgh at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Florida State 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Pittsburgh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Pittsburghavg 48¢ | $950.5 | $980.2 | +$29.7 | 57% 3276-2473 (5749) |
PL pltrkr111CTR | Pittsburghavg 48¢ | $771.36 | $795.47 | +$24.11 | 2% 11-516 (527) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Pittsburghavg 48¢ | $504.02 | $487.51 | +$16.39 | 52% 597-541 (1138) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Pittsburghavg 48¢ | $27.04 | $27.89 | +$0.85 | 61% 935-598 (1533) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Pittsburghavg 48¢ | $24.96 | $25.74 | +$0.78 | 54% 135-114 (249) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Pittsburghavg 48¢ | $8.95 | $9.18 | +$0.23 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
Invested
$950.5
Value
$980.2
PnL
+$29.7
Record
57%
3276-2473 (5749)
Invested
$771.36
Value
$795.47
PnL
+$24.11
Record
2%
11-516 (527)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$504.02
Value
$487.51
PnL
+$16.39
Record
52%
597-541 (1138)
Invested
$27.04
Value
$27.89
PnL
+$0.85
Record
61%
935-598 (1533)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$25.74
PnL
+$0.78
Record
54%
135-114 (249)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$0.23
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.