Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Florida International vs. Liberty: O/U 45.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 39¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$21.92
51.1¢ → 38.5¢
-25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$50.46 | 54% 604-520 (1124) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 48¢ | $566 | $558.25 | -$7.75 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Overavg 50.9¢ | $87.76 | $86.96 | -$0.8 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.9¢ | $58 | $54.72 | -$3.28 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $29.76 | $32.24 | +$2.48 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 48¢ | $556.64 | $34.86 | -$10.74 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $32.48 | $22.91 | -$9.57 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $11.76 | $11.28 | -$0.48 | 54% 2996-2576 (5572) |
Invested
$1,286.75
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$50.46
Record
54%
604-520 (1124)
Invested
$566
Value
$558.25
PnL
-$7.75
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$87.76
Value
$86.96
PnL
-$0.8
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$556.64
Value
$34.86
PnL
-$10.74
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$32.48
Value
$22.91
PnL
-$9.57
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$11.76
Value
$11.28
PnL
-$0.48
Record
54%
2996-2576 (5572)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.