Spread: Liberty (-13.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Liberty (75%) · Liberty at 93¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Liberty
4
Liberty 75%
$2.7K
-$23.7
53¢ → 93¢
+75% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralLiberty at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Libertyavg 53¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$25.35 | 55% 60-49 (109) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Florida Internationalavg 48¢ | $18.24 | $18.24 | +$0 | 50% 7036-7035 (14071) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Libertyavg 82¢ | $3.28 | $3.2 | -$0.08 | 53% 10788-9397 (20185) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Libertyavg 52.1¢ | $53.84 | $3.12 | +$1.73 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
Invested
$2,687.89
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$25.35
Record
55%
60-49 (109)
Invested
$18.24
Value
$18.24
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7036-7035 (14071)
Invested
$3.28
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
10788-9397 (20185)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$53.84
Value
$3.12
PnL
+$1.73
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.