Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Florida International, while the market favors Liberty (99%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Florida International vs. Liberty
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Florida International (50%) · Florida International at 0.6¢ · $916 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Florida International
6
Florida International 50%
$915.79
-$37.35
17¢ → 0.6¢
-96% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidFlorida International at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Liberty 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IC ic4creamCTR | Florida Internationalavg 17¢ | $738.82 | $695.36 | -$43.46 | 59% 2641-1851 (4492) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Libertyavg 81¢ | $81 | $99.4 | +$8.5 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Libertyavg 85.8¢ | $51.5 | $50.4 | -$1.1 | 58% 18675-13734 (32409) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Libertyavg 84¢ | $42 | $42 | +$0 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Florida Internationalavg 17¢ | $21.92 | $20.63 | -$1.29 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Florida Internationalavg 16¢ | $8 | $8 | +$0 | 73% 6697-2416 (9113) |
Invested
$738.82
Value
$695.36
PnL
-$43.46
Record
59%
2641-1851 (4492)
Invested
$81
Value
$99.4
PnL
+$8.5
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$51.5
Value
$50.4
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
18675-13734 (32409)
Invested
$42
Value
$42
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$21.92
Value
$20.63
PnL
-$1.29
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$8
Value
$8
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
6697-2416 (9113)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.