Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: O/U 75.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 57¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 15

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$150.78

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 57.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares7,304

Combined PnL+$103

Over5 traders

Total Value$866.47

Total Shares2,016

Combined PnL+$47.78

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.4K	+$155.58	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$143.57
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$12.02
MA MAGATheeStallion	Underavg 56.5¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$53.13	6% 11-176 (187)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 53¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$47.17	4% 23-537 (560)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 44.5¢	$303.66	$283.26	-$20.4	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 43¢	$1.4K	$276.94	+$67.24	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 43.4¢	$268.55	$268.96	+$0.41	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 53¢	$57.24	$59.94	+$2.7	54% 286-244 (530)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$28.38	$28.71	+$0.33	48% 286-304 (590)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.6	+$0.2	36% 945-1666 (2611)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,207.39

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$155.58

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

Both legs:

Under$2,174.0353¢+$143.57

Over$1,033.3643¢+$12.02

MAGATheeStallion

Under

Invested

$2,999.91

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$53.13

Record

11-176 (187)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$47.17

Record

23-537 (560)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$303.66

Value

$283.26

PnL

-$20.4

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,407.3

Value

$276.94

PnL

+$67.24

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$268.55

Value

$268.96

PnL

+$0.41

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$57.24

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$2.7

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.38

Value

$28.71

PnL

+$0.33

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.