Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa: O/U 69.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 59¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 25%
$7.2K
$209.83
50.4¢ → 58.5¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primm | Underavg 50.4¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$53.78 | 59% 1050-730 (1780) |
CM cm2897CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $999.6 | $1.0K | +$10.2 | 49% 1204-1251 (2455) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 45.2¢ | $768.43 | $961.32 | +$192.88 | 55% 5758-4807 (10565) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 48.3¢ | $330.76 | $293.47 | -$2.63 | 47% 3580-3963 (7543) |
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $144.55 | $144.55 | +$0 | 44% 220-284 (504) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Overavg 46.2¢ | $126.57 | $76.54 | -$45.83 | 50% 1850-1880 (3730) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $21.17 | $22.09 | +$0.92 | 46% 884-1056 (1940) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.55 | +$0.5 | 38% 1210-2005 (3215) |
Invested
$4,621.36
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$53.78
Record
59%
1050-730 (1780)
Invested
$999.6
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10.2
Record
49%
1204-1251 (2455)
RN1CTRInvested
$768.43
Value
$961.32
PnL
+$192.88
Record
55%
5758-4807 (10565)
Invested
$330.76
Value
$293.47
PnL
-$2.63
Record
47%
3580-3963 (7543)
Invested
$144.55
Value
$144.55
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
220-284 (504)
Invested
$126.57
Value
$76.54
PnL
-$45.83
Record
50%
1850-1880 (3730)
Invested
$21.17
Value
$22.09
PnL
+$0.92
Record
46%
884-1056 (1940)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.5
Record
38%
1210-2005 (3215)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.