Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Tulsa (50%) · Tulsa at 69¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 15

Florida Atlantic32¢Tulsa68¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tulsa

Consensus Traders

Tulsa 50%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$10.15

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 68.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTulsa at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tulsa

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Atlantic32%

Tulsa69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tulsa4 traders

Total Value$8.5K

Total Shares12,548

Combined PnL-$76.98

Florida Atlantic4 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares11,534

Combined PnL+$66.83

Tulsa — 50%Florida Atlantic — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Tulsa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tulsa) and the top 1000 (7 on Florida Atlantic) disagree here.

ctrFlorida Atlantic 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTulsa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Atlantic 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tulsaavg 69¢	$6.4K	$6.3K	-$93.15	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
VeryLucky888	Tulsaavg 68¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$11.17	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 31¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$47.71	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
HI hi774cCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 31¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$35.29	22% 179-619 (798)
PR primmCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 32¢	$1.0K	$984.38	-$15.63	59% 931-653 (1584)
GC GC-P	Tulsaavg 68¢	$340	$342.5	+$2.5	37% 364-613 (977)
NM NM-P	Tulsaavg 68¢	$340	$342.5	+$2.5	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 32¢	$34.78	$34.24	-$0.54	47% 99-111 (210)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tulsa

Invested

$6,427.1

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$93.15

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

VeryLucky888

Tulsa

Invested

$1,518.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$11.17

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,479.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$47.71

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

hi774cCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,093.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$35.29

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

primmCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,000

Value

$984.38

PnL

-$15.63

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

GC-P

Tulsa

Invested

$340

Value

$342.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

NM-P

Tulsa

Invested

$340

Value

$342.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$34.78

Value

$34.24

PnL

-$0.54

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralTulsa at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tulsa

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Tulsa. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Tulsa) and the top 1000 (7 on Florida Atlantic) disagree here.

ctrFlorida Atlantic 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedTulsa 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Atlantic 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tulsa wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.