Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas: O/U 73.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 90¢ · $17K held · ended Oct 29

Over90¢Under10¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$16.6K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 89.5¢

+51% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over90%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares23,324

Combined PnL-$343.56

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares9,454

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Overavg 52¢	$4.3K	$7.5K	+$1.3K	46% 1041-1242 (2283)
VigorishVault	Overavg 63.4¢	$9.1K	$7.5K	$-1.6K	— 6-2 (8)
DA DaBossHogg	Overavg 57.6¢	$302	$471.91	-$42.45	51% 210-203 (413)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Underavg 47¢	$2.0K	$432.41	$-1.6K	54% 1195-1008 (2203)
SA SadSquid54333CTR	Underavg 48.9¢	$1.1K	$424.44	-$674.28	58% 166-120 (286)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$140.39	$140.39	-$15.26	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
TA takeormake	Overavg 53.5¢	$67.17	$113.07	+$45.9	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Underavg 52¢	$267.8	$51.5	-$216.3	— 4-2 (6)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$31.85	$6.5	-$25.35	50% 3766-3742 (7508)

primm

Over

Invested

$4,342.2

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

46%

1041-1242 (2283)

VigorishVault

Over

Invested

$9,088.91

Value

$7.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

6-2 (8)

DaBossHogg

Over

Invested

$302

Value

$471.91

PnL

-$42.45

Record

51%

210-203 (413)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Under

Invested

$2,032.31

Value

$432.41

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1195-1008 (2203)

SadSquid54333CTR

Under

Invested

$1,098.72

Value

$424.44

PnL

-$674.28

Record

58%

166-120 (286)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$140.39

Value

$140.39

PnL

-$15.26

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$67.17

Value

$113.07

PnL

+$45.9

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Under

Invested

$267.8

Value

$51.5

PnL

-$216.3

Record

—

4-2 (6)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.85

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$25.35

Record

50%

3766-3742 (7508)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 90%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (8 on Over) disagree here.

whaleOver 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.