Spread: North Texas (-7.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (43%) · North Texas at 57¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 29

North Texas57¢Florida Atlantic43¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.6K

Combined PnL

-$299.82

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 57.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas57%

Florida Atlantic43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas3 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares22,040

Combined PnL-$616.5

Florida Atlantic4 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,521

Combined PnL+$316.68

North Texas — 43%Florida Atlantic — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	North Texasavg 56.7¢	$11.2K	$10.4K	-$873.13	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
RN1CTR	Florida Atlanticavg 41.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$262.76	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
LI lightotunnel35	North Texasavg 49.3¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$256.1	53% 49-44 (93)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Florida Atlanticavg 46.1¢	$1.1K	$904.17	+$102.91	—
CH chiefphiCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 65.4¢	$416.22	$340.48	-$75.74	52% 98-91 (189)
5D 0x5d40...ba95ARB<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 46¢	$135	$147.5	+$12.5	—
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 46¢	$92	$95	+$3
└ North Texas leg	North Texasavg 43¢	$43	$52.5	+$9.5
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 35.7¢	$53.5	$80.25	+$26.75	41% 1959-2764 (4723)
ST stackingsats<$100	North Texasavg 45¢	$47.51	$48.04	+$0.53	48% 333-364 (697)

justaluckydude

North Texas

Invested

$11,223.65

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$873.13

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

RN1CTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,682.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$262.76

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

lightotunnel35

North Texas

Invested

$1,546.59

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$256.1

Record

53%

49-44 (93)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,112.95

Value

$904.17

PnL

+$102.91

Record

—

chiefphiCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$416.22

Value

$340.48

PnL

-$75.74

Record

52%

98-91 (189)

0x5d40...ba95ARB<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$135

Value

$147.5

PnL

+$12.5

Record

—

Both legs:

Florida Atlantic$9246¢+$3

North Texas$4343¢+$9.5

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$53.5

Value

$80.25

PnL

+$26.75

Record

41%

1959-2764 (4723)

stackingsats<$100

North Texas

Invested

$47.51

Value

$48.04

PnL

+$0.53

Record

48%

333-364 (697)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.