Spread: North Texas (-6.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (57%) · North Texas at 65¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
North Texas
7
North Texas 57%
$3.1K
-$92.4
58.4¢ → 64.5¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorth Texas at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydude | North Texasavg 60.6¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$79.14 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
LI lightotunnel35 | North Texasavg 54¢ | $678.96 | $660.1 | -$18.86 | 53% 49-44 (93) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5 | North Texasavg 58.2¢ | $378.49 | $295.88 | +$14.61 | — |
 RN1CTR | Florida Atlanticavg 40¢ | $221.82 | $219.05 | -$2.77 | 54% 56110-48247 (104357) |
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100 | Florida Atlanticavg 39¢ | $81 | $74.87 | -$6.13 | — |
TO torta.techCTR<$100 | Florida Atlanticavg 44¢ | $32.56 | $35.15 | +$2.59 | 63% 8088-4821 (12909) |
TA takeormake<$100 | North Texasavg 66¢ | $13.2 | $10.5 | -$2.7 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
Invested
$1,893.17
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$79.14
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Invested
$678.96
Value
$660.1
PnL
-$18.86
Record
53%
49-44 (93)
Invested
$378.49
Value
$295.88
PnL
+$14.61
Record
—
RN1CTRInvested
$221.82
Value
$219.05
PnL
-$2.77
Record
54%
56110-48247 (104357)
Invested
$81
Value
$74.87
PnL
-$6.13
Record
—
Invested
$32.56
Value
$35.15
PnL
+$2.59
Record
63%
8088-4821 (12909)
Invested
$13.2
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$2.7
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.