Spread: North Texas (-5.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (60%) · North Texas at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
North Texas
5
North Texas 60%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
-$55.83
62.8¢ → 56¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNorth Texas at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE | North Texasavg 62.9¢ | $4.0K | $3.9K | -$59.97 | 54% 1195-1008 (2203) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | North Texasavg 60.5¢ | $365.98 | $354.67 | -$11.31 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
| └ North Texas leg | North Texasavg 60.5¢ | $237.27 | $221.47 | -$15.8 | |
| └ Florida Atlantic leg | Florida Atlanticavg 42¢ | $128.7 | $133.2 | +$4.49 | |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR | Florida Atlanticavg 44¢ | $134.64 | $133.11 | -$1.53 | — |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | North Texasavg 53¢ | $33.39 | $39.06 | +$5.67 | 50% 3766-3742 (7508) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Florida Atlanticavg 48¢ | $9.6 | $8.7 | -$0.9 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
US User7429<$100 | North Texasavg 45¢ | $3.52 | $4.42 | +$0.9 | 55% 8186-6601 (14787) |
Invested
$3,986.27
Value
$3.9K
PnL
-$59.97
Record
54%
1195-1008 (2203)
Invested
$365.98
Value
$354.67
PnL
-$11.31
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Both legs:
Invested
$134.64
Value
$133.11
PnL
-$1.53
Record
—
Invested
$33.39
Value
$39.06
PnL
+$5.67
Record
50%
3766-3742 (7508)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$0.9
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
Invested
$3.52
Value
$4.42
PnL
+$0.9
Record
55%
8186-6601 (14787)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.