Spread: North Texas (-17.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (29%) · Florida Atlantic at 84¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Florida Atlantic
7
Florida Atlantic 29%
$11.7K
$368.32
61.8¢ → 84¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Florida Atlanticavg 62.2¢ | $7.2K | $7.7K | +$445.89 | 53% 49-44 (93) |
PR primmCTR | North Texasavg 43¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$139.53 | 46% 1041-1242 (2283) |
 RN1CTR | North Texasavg 33.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$41 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Florida Atlanticavg 56¢ | $462.88 | $495.94 | +$33.06 | 54% 17016-14265 (31281) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | North Texasavg 43¢ | $36.55 | $34 | -$2.55 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | North Texasavg 37¢ | $31.08 | $19.74 | -$11.34 | 54% 10577-9177 (19754) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | North Texasavg 16.5¢ | $3.3 | $5.1 | +$1.8 | 57% 13390-10234 (23624) |
Invested
$7,231.14
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$445.89
Record
53%
49-44 (93)
Invested
$1,999.99
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$139.53
Record
46%
1041-1242 (2283)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,600.5
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$41
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Invested
$462.88
Value
$495.94
PnL
+$33.06
Record
54%
17016-14265 (31281)
Invested
$36.55
Value
$34
PnL
-$2.55
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
Invested
$31.08
Value
$19.74
PnL
-$11.34
Record
54%
10577-9177 (19754)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.1
PnL
+$1.8
Record
57%
13390-10234 (23624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.