Spread: North Texas (-16.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (63%) · Florida Atlantic at 80¢ · $789 held · ended Oct 29

North Texas21¢Florida Atlantic79¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida Atlantic

Consensus Traders

Florida Atlantic 63%

Total Value

$788.97

Combined PnL

$146.96

Smart Money Entry

58.6¢ → 79.5¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas21%

Florida Atlantic80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida Atlantic5 traders

Total Value$708.33

Total Shares1,056

Combined PnL+$159.92

North Texas3 traders

Total Value$80.64

Total Shares224

Combined PnL-$12.96

Florida Atlantic — 63%North Texas — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlorida Atlantic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlorida Atlantic 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlorida Atlantic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Atlantic 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Florida Atlanticavg 63¢	$193.55	$252.8	+$59.25	54% 1195-1008 (2203)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Florida Atlanticavg 59¢	$10.62	$186.83	+$63.37	—
FO Forecastication2	Florida Atlanticavg 52¢	$104	$126	+$22	50% 6911-6901 (13812)
TimeTraveler	Florida Atlanticavg 54¢	$106.96	$124.78	+$17.83	41% 1959-2764 (4723)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	North Texasavg 37.3¢	$42.51	$41.04	-$1.47	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	North Texasavg 46¢	$28.06	$21.96	-$6.1	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
TA takeormake<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 73¢	$20.44	$17.92	-$2.52	53% 3934-3425 (7359)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	North Texasavg 47¢	$23.03	$17.64	-$5.39	50% 3766-3742 (7508)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$193.55

Value

$252.8

PnL

+$59.25

Record

54%

1195-1008 (2203)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$10.62

Value

$186.83

PnL

+$63.37

Record

—

Forecastication2

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$104

Value

$126

PnL

+$22

Record

50%

6911-6901 (13812)

TimeTraveler

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$106.96

Value

$124.78

PnL

+$17.83

Record

41%

1959-2764 (4723)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$42.51

Value

$41.04

PnL

-$1.47

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$28.06

Value

$21.96

PnL

-$6.1

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

takeormake<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$20.44

Value

$17.92

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

3934-3425 (7359)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$23.03

Value

$17.64

PnL

-$5.39

Record

50%

3766-3742 (7508)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 80%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlorida Atlantic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlorida Atlantic 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlorida Atlantic 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Atlantic 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Atlantic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.