Spread: North Texas (-14.5)

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (79%) · Florida Atlantic at 76¢ · $33K held · ended Oct 29

North Texas24¢Florida Atlantic76¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida Atlantic

Consensus Traders

Florida Atlantic 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.2K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 76¢

+53% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas24%

Florida Atlantic76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida Atlantic11 traders

Total Value$27.0K

Total Shares35,963

Combined PnL+$8.9K

North Texas3 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares27,327

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Florida Atlantic — 79%North Texas — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlorida Atlantic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlorida Atlantic 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlorida Atlantic 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Atlantic 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$13.2K	$10.3K	+$3.8K	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
HI hi774c	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$10.2K	$7.8K	+$2.8K	52% 4694-4412 (9106)
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	North Texasavg 51¢	$13.5K	$5.8K	$-7.6K	47% 49-55 (104)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Florida Atlanticavg 48.9¢	$2.7K	$3.8K	+$1.2K	54% 2298-1976 (4274)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$543.65	54% 4831-4067 (8898)
LI lightotunnel35	Florida Atlanticavg 61¢	$920.76	$1.2K	+$256.61	53% 49-44 (93)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$500	$714.29	+$214.29	51% 3916-3831 (7747)
NO Notradecopy	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$500	$714.29	-$71.43	49% 3911-4107 (8018)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Florida Atlanticavg 71¢	$12.78	$320.35	+$107.51	—
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$148.47	$212.1	+$63.63	54% 2953-2534 (5487)
TimeTraveler	Florida Atlanticavg 51¢	$102	$140	+$38	41% 1959-2764 (4723)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	North Texasavg 35.4¢	$211.63	$131.54	-$80.09	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	North Texasavg 52¢	$129.5	$129.5	+$0	51% 1371-1316 (2687)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	North Texasavg 49¢	$101.92	$109.96	+$8.04	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$49	$70	+$21
└ North Texas leg	North Texasavg 49¢	$52.92	$39.96	-$12.96
VeryLucky888	Florida Atlanticavg 49¢	$1.4K	$2.04	+$8.54	58% 41344-29975 (71319)

HomeRunHazard

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$13,189.8

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

hi774c

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$10,204.08

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

52%

4694-4412 (9106)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

North Texas

Invested

$13,453.25

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-7.6K

Record

47%

49-55 (104)

0x0A77exmm

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$2,687.39

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

54%

2298-1976 (4274)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,283.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$543.65

Record

54%

4831-4067 (8898)

lightotunnel35

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$920.76

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$256.61

Record

53%

49-44 (93)

GamblingAddict12345

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$500

Value

$714.29

PnL

+$214.29

Record

51%

3916-3831 (7747)

Notradecopy

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$500

Value

$714.29

PnL

-$71.43

Record

49%

3911-4107 (8018)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$12.78

Value

$320.35

PnL

+$107.51

Record

—

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$148.47

Value

$212.1

PnL

+$63.63

Record

54%

2953-2534 (5487)

TimeTraveler

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$102

Value

$140

PnL

+$38

Record

41%

1959-2764 (4723)

justaluckydudeCTR

North Texas

Invested

$211.63

Value

$131.54

PnL

-$80.09

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

North Texas

Invested

$129.5

Value

$129.5

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1371-1316 (2687)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

North Texas

Invested

$101.92

Value

$109.96

PnL

+$8.04

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

Both legs:

Florida Atlantic$4949¢+$21

North Texas$52.9249¢-$12.96

VeryLucky888

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,373.29

Value

$2.04

PnL

+$8.54

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

11 of 14 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Florida Atlantic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleFlorida Atlantic 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrFlorida Atlantic 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedFlorida Atlantic 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Florida Atlantic 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Atlantic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.