Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Texas, while the market favors Florida Atlantic (77%). 13 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: North Texas (-13.5)

13 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (87%) · North Texas at 24¢ · $44K held · ended Oct 29

North Texas24¢Florida Atlantic76¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 87%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$44.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 23.5¢

-57% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Florida Atlantic 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

North Texas24%

Florida Atlantic77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Texas13 traders

Total Value$39.5K

Total Shares75,166

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Florida Atlantic2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,921

Combined PnL-$152.3

North Texas — 87%Florida Atlantic — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on North Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Texas 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Texas 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Texas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Texas 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	North Texasavg 56¢	$19.1K	$18.7K	-$340.47	50% 2486-2470 (4956)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	North Texasavg 55.6¢	$11.7K	$11.6K	-$131.51	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
KA KaneAnalytics	Florida Atlanticavg 56.7¢	$4.4K	$4.3K	-$170.91	52% 355-327 (682)
RN1CTR	North Texasavg 43¢	$2.4K	$2.6K	+$206.93	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	North Texasavg 57¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$650	54% 4827-4066 (8893)
VeryLucky888CTR	North Texasavg 56¢	$3.4K	$2.0K	$-1.3K	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	North Texasavg 55¢	$848.69	$848.69	+$7.72	46% 422-486 (908)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	North Texasavg 56.3¢	$787.5	$770	-$17.5	51% 1367-1309 (2676)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	North Texasavg 56.4¢	$273.29	$266.43	-$6.86	54% 2951-2534 (5485)
SL slimjoeCTR	North Texasavg 56¢	$210	$206.25	-$3.75	51% 6472-6142 (12614)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	North Texasavg 56¢	$136.13	$132.9	-$2.61	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
└ North Texas leg	North Texasavg 56¢	$78.93	$77.55	-$1.38
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 46.5¢	$57.2	$55.35	-$1.23
JU justaluckydude<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 45.1¢	$64.16	$82.77	+$18.61	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	North Texasavg 57¢	$41.66	$40.51	-$1.14	57% 13390-10234 (23624)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	North Texasavg 56¢	$44.8	$29.2	-$15.6	50% 3765-3738 (7503)
PR primmCTR<$100	North Texasavg 44¢	$13.8	$15.68	+$1.88	46% 1041-1242 (2283)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	North Texasavg 53¢	$1.01	$1.05	+$0.03	38% 365-594 (959)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

North Texas

Invested

$19,066.01

Value

$18.7K

PnL

-$340.47

Record

50%

2486-2470 (4956)

HomeRunHazardCTR

North Texas

Invested

$11,719.07

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$131.51

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

KaneAnalytics

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$4,428.3

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$170.91

Record

52%

355-327 (682)

RN1CTR

North Texas

Invested

$2,440.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$206.93

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

North Texas

Invested

$2,964

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$650

Record

54%

4827-4066 (8893)

VeryLucky888CTR

North Texas

Invested

$3,371.33

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

North Texas

Invested

$848.69

Value

$848.69

PnL

+$7.72

Record

46%

422-486 (908)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

North Texas

Invested

$787.5

Value

$770

PnL

-$17.5

Record

51%

1367-1309 (2676)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

North Texas

Invested

$273.29

Value

$266.43

PnL

-$6.86

Record

54%

2951-2534 (5485)

slimjoeCTR

North Texas

Invested

$210

Value

$206.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

51%

6472-6142 (12614)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

North Texas

Invested

$136.13

Value

$132.9

PnL

-$2.61

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

Both legs:

North Texas$78.9356¢-$1.38

Florida Atlantic$57.246.5¢-$1.23

justaluckydude<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$64.16

Value

$82.77

PnL

+$18.61

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

ghorrockCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$41.66

Value

$40.51

PnL

-$1.14

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$44.8

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$15.6

Record

50%

3765-3738 (7503)

primmCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$13.8

Value

$15.68

PnL

+$1.88

Record

46%

1041-1242 (2283)

OddstormCTR<$100

North Texas

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

365-594 (959)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Texas at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

13 of 15 top traders (87%)Underdog side (market favors Florida Atlantic 77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on North Texas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Texas 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorth Texas 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorth Texas 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000North Texas 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.