Florida Atlantic vs. North Texas

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold North Texas (56%) · North Texas at 67¢ · $88K held · ended Oct 29

Florida Atlantic34¢North Texas66¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Texas

Consensus Traders

North Texas 56%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$88.2K

Combined PnL

-$809.6

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 66.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

9 of 16 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Florida Atlantic34%

North Texas67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida Atlantic7 traders

Total Value$40.5K

Total Shares160,661

Combined PnL$-1.2K

North Texas9 traders

Total Value$44.6K

Total Shares60,604

Combined PnL+$381.73

Florida Atlantic — 44%North Texas — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KaneAnalyticsCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 26¢	$36.8K	$36.1K	-$707.18	52% 355-327 (682)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	North Texasavg 72¢	$23.6K	$24.1K	+$488.37	54% 1193-1008 (2201)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	North Texasavg 72¢	$13.7K	$13.6K	-$95.37	46% 422-486 (908)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	North Texasavg 73.9¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$20	59% 30246-20951 (51197)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	North Texasavg 71.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$10.67	52% 13683-12498 (26181)
└ North Texas leg	North Texasavg 71.9¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$35.53
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 27.9¢	$910.91	$864.7	-$46.21
VeryLucky888	North Texasavg 83¢	$4.1K	$1.9K	+$25.51	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
PR primmCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 26.8¢	$2.3K	$1.8K	-$543.29	46% 1041-1242 (2283)
RN1CTR	Florida Atlanticavg 28¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$24.43	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
UP UpTheBlues	North Texasavg 82¢	$983.18	$989.18	+$5.99	59% 45158-31551 (76709)
SN SnakeBall	North Texasavg 81.3¢	$693.12	$703.24	+$10.12	50% 33100-32656 (65756)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Florida Atlanticavg 18¢	$718.2	$698.25	-$19.95	50% 6908-6896 (13804)
TA takeormakeCTR	Florida Atlanticavg 26¢	$377.58	$434.48	+$56.91	53% 3931-3424 (7355)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 25.7¢	$413.42	$428.34	+$14.92	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
└ North Texas leg	North Texasavg 67¢	$198.32	$223.48	+$25.16
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 25.7¢	$215.1	$204.86	-$10.24
BI BillBenter2026	North Texasavg 84.7¢	$498.55	$423.76	-$74.8	58% 18521-13604 (32125)
Nooserac	North Texasavg 72¢	$223.2	$224.75	+$1.55	52% 5751-5327 (11078)
HRTradingARB<$100	North Texasavg 69.2¢	$213.42	$218.58	+$5.16	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
└ North Texas leg	North Texasavg 69.2¢	$153.81	$158.87	+$5.06
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 28.5¢	$59.61	$59.71	+$0.1
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 28¢	$98	$96.25	-$1.75	51% 1367-1309 (2676)
OM omoi0i0CTR<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 29¢	$29	$28.5	-$0.5	15% 98-558 (656)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	North Texasavg 67¢	$3.35	$3.7	+$0.35	86% 4929-819 (5748)

KaneAnalyticsCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$36,773.2

Value

$36.1K

PnL

-$707.18

Record

52%

355-327 (682)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

North Texas

Invested

$23,602.99

Value

$24.1K

PnL

+$488.37

Record

54%

1193-1008 (2201)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

North Texas

Invested

$13,732.72

Value

$13.6K

PnL

-$95.37

Record

46%

422-486 (908)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

North Texas

Invested

$2,587.44

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$20

Record

59%

30246-20951 (51197)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

North Texas

Invested

$2,534.67

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$10.67

Record

52%

13683-12498 (26181)

Both legs:

North Texas$1,623.7671.9¢+$35.53

Florida Atlantic$910.9127.9¢-$46.21

VeryLucky888

North Texas

Invested

$4,141.38

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$25.51

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

primmCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$2,320.33

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$543.29

Record

46%

1041-1242 (2283)

RN1CTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$1,368.36

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$24.43

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

UpTheBlues

North Texas

Invested

$983.18

Value

$989.18

PnL

+$5.99

Record

59%

45158-31551 (76709)

SnakeBall

North Texas

Invested

$693.12

Value

$703.24

PnL

+$10.12

Record

50%

33100-32656 (65756)

Forecastication2CTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$718.2

Value

$698.25

PnL

-$19.95

Record

50%

6908-6896 (13804)

takeormakeCTR

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$377.58

Value

$434.48

PnL

+$56.91

Record

53%

3931-3424 (7355)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$413.42

Value

$428.34

PnL

+$14.92

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Both legs:

North Texas$198.3267¢+$25.16

Florida Atlantic$215.125.7¢-$10.24

BillBenter2026

North Texas

Invested

$498.55

Value

$423.76

PnL

-$74.8

Record

58%

18521-13604 (32125)

Nooserac

North Texas

Invested

$223.2

Value

$224.75

PnL

+$1.55

Record

52%

5751-5327 (11078)

HRTradingARB<$100

North Texas

Invested

$213.42

Value

$218.58

PnL

+$5.16

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

Both legs:

North Texas$153.8169.2¢+$5.06

Florida Atlantic$59.6128.5¢+$0.1

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$98

Value

$96.25

PnL

-$1.75

Record

51%

1367-1309 (2676)

omoi0i0CTR<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$29

Value

$28.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

15%

98-558 (656)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

North Texas

Invested

$3.35

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.35

Record

86%

4929-819 (5748)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Texas at 67%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Texas

9 of 16 top traders (56%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Texas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.