Spread: Kentucky (-6.5)
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (63%) · Florida at 84¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Florida
8
Florida 63%
1 arb excluded
$4.7K
$1.5K
44.5¢ → 83.5¢
+88% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI biying88888 | Floridaavg 42.3¢ | $1.3K | $2.5K | +$1.2K | 44% 224-287 (511) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Kentuckyavg 58¢ | $2.4K | $830.7 | $-1.5K | 55% 5703-4745 (10448) |
| └ Kentucky leg | Kentuckyavg 58¢ | $2.2K | $637.07 | $-1.6K | |
| └ Florida leg | Floridaavg 52¢ | $120.59 | $193.64 | +$73.05 | |
CM cm2897 | Floridaavg 37¢ | $308.58 | $696.39 | +$387.81 | 49% 1204-1246 (2450) |
 nigiri99 | Floridaavg 60¢ | $480 | $552 | +$72 | 51% 639-619 (1258) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Kentuckyavg 53.6¢ | $642.84 | $77.87 | -$126.26 | 47% 3551-3935 (7486) |
NO NotJumpCTR<$100 | Kentuckyavg 52¢ | $52 | $33 | -$19 | 51% 970-935 (1905) |
PR primm<$100 | Floridaavg 54¢ | $13.5 | $20.88 | +$7.38 | 59% 1044-726 (1770) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Kentuckyavg 56.9¢ | $56.71 | $17.27 | -$22.6 | 50% 1827-1860 (3687) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Floridaavg 69¢ | $3.45 | $4.18 | +$0.72 | 49% 588-623 (1211) |
Invested
$1,254.67
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
44%
224-287 (511)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,361.74
Value
$830.7
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
55%
5703-4745 (10448)
Both legs:
Invested
$308.58
Value
$696.39
PnL
+$387.81
Record
49%
1204-1246 (2450)
nigiri99Invested
$480
Value
$552
PnL
+$72
Record
51%
639-619 (1258)
Invested
$642.84
Value
$77.87
PnL
-$126.26
Record
47%
3551-3935 (7486)
Invested
$52
Value
$33
PnL
-$19
Record
51%
970-935 (1905)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$20.88
PnL
+$7.38
Record
59%
1044-726 (1770)
Invested
$56.71
Value
$17.27
PnL
-$22.6
Record
50%
1827-1860 (3687)
Invested
$3.45
Value
$4.18
PnL
+$0.72
Record
49%
588-623 (1211)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.