Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kentucky, while the market favors Florida (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Kentucky (-3.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Kentucky (63%) · Kentucky at 45¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Kentucky45¢Florida55¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kentucky

Consensus Traders

Kentucky 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$7.89

Smart Money Entry

45.2¢ → 44.5¢

-2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKentucky at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kentucky

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Florida 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kentucky45%

Florida56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kentucky5 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,711

Combined PnL-$24.87

Florida3 traders

Total Value$802.05

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL+$16.99

Kentucky — 63%Florida — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKentucky 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKentucky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kentucky 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Kentuckyavg 45¢	$967.95	$957.2	-$10.76	51% 579-546 (1125)
38 38791873984189	Floridaavg 52¢	$386.24	$404.8	+$18.57	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Floridaavg 56¢	$373.33	$370	-$3.33	4% 14-330 (344)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Floridaavg 55¢	$350	$350	-$0	39% 402-638 (1040)
└ Florida leg	Floridaavg 55¢	$192.5	$192.5	-$0
└ Kentucky leg	Kentuckyavg 45¢	$157.5	$157.5	+$0
NM NM-PARB<$100	Floridaavg 55¢	$350	$350	+$0	59% 3805-2621 (6426)
└ Florida leg	Floridaavg 55¢	$192.5	$192.5	-$0
└ Kentucky leg	Kentuckyavg 45¢	$157.5	$157.5	+$0
VeryLucky888CTR	Kentuckyavg 45.3¢	$549.23	$302.32	-$7.35	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kentuckyavg 46¢	$302.1	$295.53	-$6.57	47% 974-1105 (2079)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 45¢	$96.05	$96.05	+$0	47% 319-356 (675)
BT BTCGambler247<$100	Floridaavg 51¢	$25.5	$27.25	+$1.75	— 1-1 (2)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 47¢	$4.74	$4.54	-$0.2	53% 1867-1658 (3525)

nigiri99CTR

Kentucky

Invested

$967.95

Value

$957.2

PnL

-$10.76

Record

51%

579-546 (1125)

38791873984189

Florida

Invested

$386.24

Value

$404.8

PnL

+$18.57

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Florida

Invested

$373.33

Value

$370

PnL

-$3.33

Record

14-330 (344)

GC-PARB<$100

Florida

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

402-638 (1040)

Both legs:

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3805-2621 (6426)

Both legs:

Invested

$549.23

Value

$302.32

PnL

-$7.35

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

SnakeBallCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$302.1

Value

$295.53

PnL

-$6.57

Record

47%

974-1105 (2079)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$96.05

Value

$96.05

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

319-356 (675)

BTCGambler247<$100

Florida

Invested

$25.5

Value

$27.25

PnL

+$1.75

Record

—

1-1 (2)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.54

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

1867-1658 (3525)

Research grade

NeutralKentucky at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kentucky

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Florida 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

54h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Kentucky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperFlorida 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKentucky 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedKentucky 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Kentucky 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kentucky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.