Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Florida, while the market favors Kentucky (55%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Kentucky (-2.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (88%) · Florida at 46¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Kentucky55¢Florida45¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida

Consensus Traders

Florida 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$44.41

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 45.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Kentucky 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kentucky55%

Florida46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kentucky1 trader

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,157

Combined PnL+$10.78

Florida7 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,342

Combined PnL+$33.62

Kentucky — 13%Florida — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kentuckyavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.78	50% 2506-2466 (4972)
38 38791873984189CTR	Floridaavg 46¢	$644.92	$651.93	+$7.01	48% 3199-3501 (6700)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Floridaavg 43.8¢	$420.3	$445.97	+$25.67	47% 895-992 (1887)
LI LimousinCTR	Floridaavg 46¢	$264.26	$261.39	-$2.87	36% 928-1642 (2570)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Floridaavg 46¢	$201.22	$199.84	-$1.38	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ Florida leg	Floridaavg 46¢	$161	$159.25	-$1.75
└ Kentucky leg	Kentuckyavg 54¢	$40.22	$40.59	+$0.37
GC GC-PCTR	Floridaavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75	37% 353-603 (956)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Floridaavg 42¢	$16.88	$18.69	+$1.81	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Floridaavg 44.8¢	$7.1	$5.02	+$0.23	52% 1712-1564 (3276)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Floridaavg 46¢	$2.32	$2.34	+$0.03	53% 1340-1169 (2509)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kentucky

Invested

$1,164.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.78

Record

50%

2506-2466 (4972)

38791873984189CTR

Florida

Invested

$644.92

Value

$651.93

PnL

+$7.01

Record

48%

3199-3501 (6700)

SnakeBallCTR

Florida

Invested

$420.3

Value

$445.97

PnL

+$25.67

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

LimousinCTR

Florida

Invested

$264.26

Value

$261.39

PnL

-$2.87

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

NM-PARB<$100

Florida

Invested

$201.22

Value

$199.84

PnL

-$1.38

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

Florida$16146¢-$1.75

Kentucky$40.2254¢+$0.37

GC-PCTR

Florida

Invested

$161

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$16.88

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$1.81

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$7.1

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

1712-1564 (3276)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$2.32

Value

$2.34

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Kentucky 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.