Spread: Kentucky (-16.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (56%) · Florida at 73¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Kentucky28¢Florida72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida

Consensus Traders

Florida 56%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$1.74

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 72.5¢

-13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kentucky28%

Florida73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,428

Combined PnL+$7.14

Kentucky4 traders

Total Value$273.19

Total Shares1,639

Combined PnL-$5.4

Florida — 56%Kentucky — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKentucky 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Florida 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Floridaavg 83¢	$830	$835	+$5	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Kentuckyavg 17¢	$174.83	$169.69	-$5.14	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
TH TheWindKnowsmyName	Floridaavg 83¢	$147.34	$148.23	+$0.89	9% 15-152 (167)
FO forecastication4	Floridaavg 83¢	$116.2	$116.9	+$0.7	34% 175-339 (514)
PA Pan9X<$100	Floridaavg 83¢	$74.7	$75.15	+$0.45	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 17¢	$70.41	$68.34	-$2.07	37% 1064-1806 (2870)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 17¢	$31.64	$33.5	+$1.86	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
GH ghorrock<$100	Floridaavg 83¢	$16.7	$16.8	+$0.1	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Kentuckyavg 17¢	$1.71	$1.66	-$0.05	37% 1085-1829 (2914)

38791873984189

Florida

Invested

$830

Value

$835

PnL

+$5

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

MadridTimeCTR

Kentucky

Invested

$174.83

Value

$169.69

PnL

-$5.14

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

TheWindKnowsmyName

Florida

Invested

$147.34

Value

$148.23

PnL

+$0.89

Record

15-152 (167)

forecastication4

Florida

Invested

$116.2

Value

$116.9

PnL

+$0.7

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Pan9X<$100

Florida

Invested

$74.7

Value

$75.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

LimousinCTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$70.41

Value

$68.34

PnL

-$2.07

Record

37%

1064-1806 (2870)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$31.64

Value

$33.5

PnL

+$1.86

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

ghorrock<$100

Florida

Invested

$16.7

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Kentucky

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.66

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1085-1829 (2914)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Florida. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKentucky 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Florida 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.