Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Florida vs. Georgia: O/U 55.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 27¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$39.19

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 26.5¢

-50% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,798

Combined PnL-$56.59

Under3 traders

Total Value$628.72

Total Shares1,234

Combined PnL+$17.4

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Overavg 53¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$56.59	73% 3586-1321 (4907)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 47¢	$472.21	$472.03	-$5.19	58% 42027-30514 (72541)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 58.6¢	$76.09	$83.68	+$7.59	53% 10788-9397 (20185)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 58¢	$58	$73	+$15	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$13.43	$13.43	+$0	58% 28788-21225 (50013)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$56.59

Record

73%

3586-1321 (4907)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$472.21

Value

$472.03

PnL

-$5.19

Record

58%

42027-30514 (72541)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$76.09

Value

$83.68

PnL

+$7.59

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$58

Value

$73

PnL

+$15

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$13.43

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.