Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Florida, while the market favors Georgia (55%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Georgia (-17.5)
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (100%) · Florida at 45¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Florida
2
Florida 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$153.28
41.6¢ → 45¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Floridaavg 37.9¢ | $1.8K | $716.91 | -$5.89 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100 | Georgiaavg 59.6¢ | $221.5 | $215.47 | -$6.04 | 48% 8249-8767 (17016) |
| └ Florida leg | Floridaavg 24.6¢ | $64.72 | $118.15 | +$53.44 | |
| └ Georgia leg | Georgiaavg 59.6¢ | $156.79 | $97.31 | -$59.47 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Floridaavg 63¢ | $193.46 | $138.19 | -$147.4 | 50% 7049-7061 (14110) |
Invested
$1,815.54
Value
$716.91
PnL
-$5.89
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Invested
$221.5
Value
$215.47
PnL
-$6.04
Record
48%
8249-8767 (17016)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.46
Value
$138.19
PnL
-$147.4
Record
50%
7049-7061 (14110)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.