Spread: Georgia (-14.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (75%) · Florida at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Florida
4
Florida 75%
$1.2K
$40.8
57.6¢ → 55.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralFlorida at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA Bagwell306 | Floridaavg 57¢ | $809.34 | $851.94 | +$42.6 | 59% 4026-2850 (6876) |
 VeryLucky888 | Floridaavg 60¢ | $212.91 | $212.91 | +$0 | 58% 41216-29879 (71095) |
IC ic4creamCTR | Georgiaavg 40¢ | $106 | $106 | +$0 | 59% 2626-1843 (4469) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Floridaavg 58.6¢ | $34.29 | $32.5 | -$1.79 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
Invested
$809.34
Value
$851.94
PnL
+$42.6
Record
59%
4026-2850 (6876)
VeryLucky888Invested
$212.91
Value
$212.91
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
41216-29879 (71095)
Invested
$106
Value
$106
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
2626-1843 (4469)
Invested
$34.29
Value
$32.5
PnL
-$1.79
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.