Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Florida, while the market favors Georgia (89%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Georgia (-13.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Florida (56%) · Florida at 12¢ · $767 held · ended Oct 31

Georgia89¢Florida11¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Florida

Consensus Traders

Florida 56%

Total Value

$766.62

Combined PnL

-$27.68

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 11.5¢

-77% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidFlorida at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia89%

Florida12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Florida5 traders

Total Value$742.95

Total Shares1,557

Combined PnL-$32.5

Georgia4 traders

Total Value$23.67

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$4.83

Florida — 56%Georgia — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Floridaavg 52.9¢	$406.56	$403.24	-$3.32	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Floridaavg 45¢	$279.45	$251.51	-$27.94	47% 331-377 (708)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Floridaavg 53¢	$54.59	$54.08	-$0.52	50% 3877-3837 (7714)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Floridaavg 53¢	$23.85	$23.63	-$0.23	50% 7036-7035 (14071)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Georgiaavg 57.7¢	$8.79	$13.56	+$4.77	49% 8081-8480 (16561)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Floridaavg 55¢	$11	$10.5	-$0.5	54% 2996-2576 (5572)
GH ghorrock<$100	Georgiaavg 46¢	$5.11	$5.28	+$0.17	57% 13860-10628 (24488)
US User7429<$100	Georgiaavg 55¢	$2.75	$2.97	+$0.22	55% 8315-6706 (15021)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Georgiaavg 55¢	$2.2	$1.86	-$0.34	53% 10788-9397 (20185)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Florida

Invested

$406.56

Value

$403.24

PnL

-$3.32

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Florida

Invested

$279.45

Value

$251.51

PnL

-$27.94

Record

47%

331-377 (708)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$54.59

Value

$54.08

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

3877-3837 (7714)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$23.85

Value

$23.63

PnL

-$0.23

Record

50%

7036-7035 (14071)

topdogbigboi<$100

Georgia

Invested

$8.79

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$4.77

Record

49%

8081-8480 (16561)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$11

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

54%

2996-2576 (5572)

ghorrock<$100

Georgia

Invested

$5.11

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

13860-10628 (24488)

User7429<$100

Georgia

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.22

Record

55%

8315-6706 (15021)

justaluckydude<$100

Georgia

Invested

$2.2

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$0.34

Record

53%

10788-9397 (20185)

Research grade

AvoidFlorida at 12%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Florida

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 89%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance13.0%

11.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$666.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

766.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.