Spread: Georgia (-11.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia (29%) · Georgia at 52¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Georgia52¢Florida48¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia

Consensus Traders

Georgia 29%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$6.99

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 51.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia52%

Florida49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,826

Combined PnL-$28.28

Florida5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,443

Combined PnL+$21.29

Georgia — 29%Florida — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGeorgia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGeorgia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Florida 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Georgiaavg 52¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$28.91	48% 412-452 (864)
38 38791873984189CTR	Floridaavg 48¢	$906.24	$925.12	+$18.88	46% 8071-9516 (17587)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Floridaavg 49¢	$142.59	$142.59	+$0	50% 6977-6973 (13950)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Floridaavg 48¢	$60	$61.25	+$1.25	54% 2976-2555 (5531)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Floridaavg 48¢	$44.38	$45.3	+$0.92	57% 13663-10453 (24116)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Floridaavg 48¢	$22.56	$23.03	+$0.24	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Georgiaavg 50¢	$21.13	$21.77	+$0.63	49% 339-358 (697)

Pwaddler

Georgia

Invested

$3,007.29

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$28.91

Record

48%

412-452 (864)

38791873984189CTR

Florida

Invested

$906.24

Value

$925.12

PnL

+$18.88

Record

46%

8071-9516 (17587)

Forecastication2CTR

Florida

Invested

$142.59

Value

$142.59

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6977-6973 (13950)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$60

Value

$61.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

54%

2976-2555 (5531)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$44.38

Value

$45.3

PnL

+$0.92

Record

57%

13663-10453 (24116)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Florida

Invested

$22.56

Value

$23.03

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Georgia

Invested

$21.13

Value

$21.77

PnL

+$0.63

Record

49%

339-358 (697)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Georgia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpGeorgia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrGeorgia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Florida 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.