Eastern Washington vs. Utah Tech

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Eastern Washington (63%) · Eastern Washington at 66¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 15

Eastern Washington66¢Utah Tech34¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eastern Washington

Consensus Traders

Eastern Washington 63%

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 65.5¢

+9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralEastern Washington at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eastern Washington

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Eastern Washington66%

Utah Tech35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eastern Washington5 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares12,740

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Utah Tech3 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares12,943

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Eastern Washington — 63%Utah Tech — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Eastern Washington. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEastern Washington 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEastern Washington 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Eastern Washington 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisghey	Eastern Washingtonavg 60¢	$7.1K	$11.1K	+$3.9K	46% 55-65 (120)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Utah Techavg 39.9¢	$5.0K	$2.0K	$-3.0K	45% 298-371 (669)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Eastern Washingtonavg 63¢	$505.04	$745.54	+$240.5	28% 428-1094 (1522)
GA GaditimaCTR	Utah Techavg 16.5¢	$82.62	$172.5	+$89.88	49% 341-352 (693)
HY hydra1248<$100	Eastern Washingtonavg 93¢	$26.99	$25.54	-$1.45	76% 212-68 (280)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Eastern Washingtonavg 84¢	$21.17	$17.55	-$3.62	38% 1390-2228 (3618)
LR lryyy<$100	Eastern Washingtonavg 83¢	$9.13	$9.63	+$0.49	45% 900-1082 (1982)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Utah Techavg 37¢	$3.57	$1.54	-$2.03	49% 580-606 (1186)

imjustkenisghey

Eastern Washington

Invested

$7,131

Value

$11.1K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

46%

55-65 (120)

Forecastication2CTR

Utah Tech

Invested

$4,956.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-3.0K

Record

45%

298-371 (669)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Eastern Washington

Invested

$505.04

Value

$745.54

PnL

+$240.5

Record

28%

428-1094 (1522)

GaditimaCTR

Utah Tech

Invested

$82.62

Value

$172.5

PnL

+$89.88

Record

49%

341-352 (693)

hydra1248<$100

Eastern Washington

Invested

$26.99

Value

$25.54

PnL

-$1.45

Record

76%

212-68 (280)

topdogbigboi<$100

Eastern Washington

Invested

$21.17

Value

$17.55

PnL

-$3.62

Record

38%

1390-2228 (3618)

lryyy<$100

Eastern Washington

Invested

$9.13

Value

$9.63

PnL

+$0.49

Record

45%

900-1082 (1982)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Utah Tech

Invested

$3.57

Value

$1.54

PnL

-$2.03

Record

49%

580-606 (1186)

Research grade

NeutralEastern Washington at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eastern Washington

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Eastern Washington. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpEastern Washington 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEastern Washington 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Eastern Washington 50% · 6

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eastern Washington wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.