Spread: East Carolina (-13.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Charlotte (67%) · Charlotte at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

East Carolina46¢Charlotte54¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Charlotte

Consensus Traders

Charlotte 67%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$39.7

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 54.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCharlotte at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Charlotte

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

East Carolina46%

Charlotte55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Charlotte6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,913

Combined PnL+$34.29

East Carolina3 traders

Total Value$548.69

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL+$5.4

Charlotte — 67%East Carolina — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Charlotte. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEast Carolina 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCharlotte 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Charlotte 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Charlotteavg 53¢	$849.36	$873.4	+$24.04	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
38 38791873984189	Charlotteavg 54.9¢	$650.72	$646.33	-$4.39	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
VeryLucky888	Charlotteavg 53¢	$530	$545	+$15	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
PR primmCTR	East Carolinaavg 45¢	$514.35	$520.07	+$5.72	59% 899-622 (1521)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Charlotteavg 55¢	$37.95	$37.61	-$0.34	48% 269-290 (559)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Charlotteavg 55¢	$23.1	$22.89	-$0.21	55% 250-204 (454)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	East Carolinaavg 46¢	$19.25	$19.04	-$0.21	47% 72-82 (154)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	East Carolinaavg 46¢	$9.69	$9.58	-$0.11	48% 852-928 (1780)
GH ghorrock<$100	Charlotteavg 53¢	$7.12	$7.32	+$0.2	53% 1556-1404 (2960)

HomeRunHazard

Charlotte

Invested

$849.36

Value

$873.4

PnL

+$24.04

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

38791873984189

Charlotte

Invested

$650.72

Value

$646.33

PnL

-$4.39

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

VeryLucky888

Charlotte

Invested

$530

Value

$545

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

primmCTR

East Carolina

Invested

$514.35

Value

$520.07

PnL

+$5.72

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$37.95

Value

$37.61

PnL

-$0.34

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$23.1

Value

$22.89

PnL

-$0.21

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$19.25

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$0.21

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$9.69

Value

$9.58

PnL

-$0.11

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

ghorrock<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$7.12

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

Research grade

NeutralCharlotte at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Charlotte

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Charlotte. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEast Carolina 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedCharlotte 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Charlotte 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Charlotte wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.