Spread: East Carolina (-10.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina (100%) · East Carolina at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
East Carolina
6
East Carolina 100%
$2.8K
$0.33
52¢ → 53¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralEast Carolina at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | East Carolinaavg 52¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0.13 | 57% 3430-2600 (6030) |
 VeryLucky888 | East Carolinaavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 52% 718-671 (1389) |
GC GC-P | East Carolinaavg 52¢ | $154.52 | $154.52 | +$0 | 27% 151-418 (569) |
NM NM-P<$100 | East Carolinaavg 52¢ | $91 | $91 | +$0 | 59% 3533-2406 (5939) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | East Carolinaavg 52¢ | $37.44 | $37.44 | +$0 | 55% 197-161 (358) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | East Carolinaavg 52¢ | $13.17 | $13.37 | +$0.2 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
Invested
$1,429.28
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
3430-2600 (6030)
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,040
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
718-671 (1389)
Invested
$154.52
Value
$154.52
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
151-418 (569)
Invested
$91
Value
$91
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3533-2406 (5939)
Invested
$37.44
Value
$37.44
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
197-161 (358)
Invested
$13.17
Value
$13.37
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.