East Carolina vs. Charlotte

7 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina (44%) · East Carolina at 81¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

East Carolina81¢Charlotte19¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

East Carolina

Consensus Traders

East Carolina 44%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.5K

Combined PnL

-$64.45

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralEast Carolina at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

East Carolina81%

Charlotte20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Carolina7 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares14,050

Combined PnL+$108.47

Charlotte9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares11,547

Combined PnL-$172.91

East Carolina — 44%Charlotte — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEast Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCharlotte 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Charlotte 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	East Carolinaavg 79¢	$7.4K	$7.5K	+$47.13	51% 568-535 (1103)
CUTJALENHURTS	East Carolinaavg 79¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$60.76	52% 2645-2472 (5117)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Charlotteavg 21¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$44.37	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Charlotteavg 21¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$369.23	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Charlotte leg	Charlotteavg 21¢	$787.53	$1.1K	+$276.43
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 62¢	$575.36	$668.16	+$92.8
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Charlotteavg 36.3¢	$531.82	$285.67	-$246.15	47% 540-597 (1137)
tradecraft	East Carolinaavg 79¢	$259.03	$260.66	+$1.64	31% 343-780 (1123)
RN1CTR	Charlotteavg 20.8¢	$227.13	$235.31	+$8.18	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	East Carolinaavg 69¢	$158.69	$156.39	-$2.3	38% 550-887 (1437)
BA babybellsCTR	Charlotteavg 21¢	$139.65	$142.98	+$3.32	30% 208-477 (685)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Charlotteavg 28¢	$65.16	$60.51	-$4.65	37% 985-1642 (2627)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Charlotteavg 21¢	$83.37	$49.45	+$29.54	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Charlotteavg 45.4¢	$109.2	$48.47	-$0.61	52% 833-779 (1612)
└ Charlotte leg	Charlotteavg 45.4¢	$56.7	$26.88	-$29.83
└ East Carolina leg	East Carolinaavg 50¢	$13.76	$21.6	+$29.21
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Charlotteavg 25¢	$47.99	$41.3	-$6.69	48% 281-299 (580)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Charlotteavg 21¢	$19.48	$18.55	-$0.93	48% 912-1002 (1914)
GH ghorrock<$100	East Carolinaavg 64¢	$6.33	$5.69	+$1.4	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
TH thatsabing0<$100	East Carolinaavg 81¢	$4.48	$4.37	-$0.11	63% 214-128 (342)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Charlotteavg 21¢	$4.19	$4.29	+$0.1	56% 4065-3175 (7240)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	East Carolinaavg 80¢	$4	$3.95	-$0.05	83% 729-152 (881)

nigiri99

East Carolina

Invested

$7,446.54

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$47.13

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

CUTJALENHURTS

East Carolina

Invested

$3,200.26

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$60.76

Record

52%

2645-2472 (5117)

6512395314597884CTR

Charlotte

Invested

$1,694.94

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$44.37

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$1,377.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$369.23

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Charlotte$787.5321¢+$276.43

East Carolina$575.3662¢+$92.8

justaluckydudeCTR

Charlotte

Invested

$531.82

Value

$285.67

PnL

-$246.15

Record

47%

540-597 (1137)

tradecraft

East Carolina

Invested

$259.03

Value

$260.66

PnL

+$1.64

Record

31%

343-780 (1123)

RN1CTR

Charlotte

Invested

$227.13

Value

$235.31

PnL

+$8.18

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

East Carolina

Invested

$158.69

Value

$156.39

PnL

-$2.3

Record

38%

550-887 (1437)

babybellsCTR

Charlotte

Invested

$139.65

Value

$142.98

PnL

+$3.32

Record

30%

208-477 (685)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$65.16

Value

$60.51

PnL

-$4.65

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$83.37

Value

$49.45

PnL

+$29.54

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

NotJumpARB<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$109.2

Value

$48.47

PnL

-$0.61

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Both legs:

Charlotte$56.745.4¢-$29.83

East Carolina$13.7650¢+$29.21

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$47.99

Value

$41.3

PnL

-$6.69

Record

48%

281-299 (580)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$19.48

Value

$18.55

PnL

-$0.93

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

ghorrock<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$6.33

Value

$5.69

PnL

+$1.4

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

thatsabing0<$100

East Carolina

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.37

PnL

-$0.11

Record

63%

214-128 (342)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Charlotte

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.29

PnL

+$0.1

Record

56%

4065-3175 (7240)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

East Carolina

Invested

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

83%

729-152 (881)

Research grade

NeutralEast Carolina at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

East Carolina

7 of 16 top traders (44%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleEast Carolina 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCharlotte 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Charlotte 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that East Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.