Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (63%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Duke vs. Miami (FL): O/U 53.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 38¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

Over38¢Under62¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

55¢ → 37.5¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over38%

Under63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares10,014

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Under1 trader

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,416

Combined PnL+$17.08

Over — 83%Under — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Overavg 55¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0	4% 19-517 (536)
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 45¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$17.08	48% 34-37 (71)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 55¢	$3.4K	$1.2K	$-2.2K	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100	Overavg 54¢	$99.09	$76.26	-$22.83	48% 293-321 (614)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$28.35	$50.72	+$22.37
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$70.74	$25.55	-$45.2
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Overavg 53¢	$54.36	$56.41	+$2.05	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 54¢	$146.37	$32.86	-$54.03	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Overavg 55¢	$54.45	$19.31	-$35.14	51% 568-535 (1103)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,952.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

19-517 (536)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$1,537.42

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.08

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$3,351.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$99.09

Value

$76.26

PnL

-$22.83

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

Both legs:

Under$28.3545¢+$22.37

Over$70.7454¢-$45.2

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.36

Value

$56.41

PnL

+$2.05

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$146.37

Value

$32.86

PnL

-$54.03

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.45

Value

$19.31

PnL

-$35.14

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.