Spread: Miami (FL) (-16.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Duke (60%) · Duke at 65¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Miami (FL)36¢Duke64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Duke

Consensus Traders

Duke 60%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$758.38

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 64.5¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralDuke at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Duke

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Miami (FL)36%

Duke65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Duke6 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares10,268

Combined PnL+$777.33

Miami (FL)4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,586

Combined PnL-$18.95

Duke — 60%Miami (FL) — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Duke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (FL) 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Duke 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Dukeavg 56¢	$4.7K	$5.3K	+$626.17	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
PU purplegattoCTR	Miami (FL)avg 44¢	$3.4K	$3.7K	+$234.69	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Miami (FL)avg 44¢	$1.1K	$880.8	-$226.49	45% 261-317 (578)
RN1	Dukeavg 55.9¢	$450.25	$511.06	+$60.82	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
65 6512395314597884	Dukeavg 55.4¢	$235.25	$269.88	+$34.62	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Dukeavg 56.1¢	$186.7	$216.45	+$29.75	54% 286-244 (530)
38 38791873984189	Dukeavg 56¢	$174.16	$197.49	+$23.33	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
PR primmCTR	Miami (FL)avg 46¢	$109.48	$83.3	-$26.18	59% 931-653 (1584)
PA Pan9X<$100	Dukeavg 55.5¢	$31.55	$34.18	+$2.63	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Miami (FL)avg 47¢	$3.8	$2.83	-$0.97	47% 99-111 (210)

HomeRunHazard

Duke

Invested

$4,675.44

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$626.17

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

purplegattoCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$3,442.12

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$234.69

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

Forecastication2CTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$1,107.29

Value

$880.8

PnL

-$226.49

Record

45%

261-317 (578)

RN1

Duke

Invested

$450.25

Value

$511.06

PnL

+$60.82

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

6512395314597884

Duke

Invested

$235.25

Value

$269.88

PnL

+$34.62

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Duke

Invested

$186.7

Value

$216.45

PnL

+$29.75

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

38791873984189

Duke

Invested

$174.16

Value

$197.49

PnL

+$23.33

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

primmCTR

Miami (FL)

Invested

$109.48

Value

$83.3

PnL

-$26.18

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

Pan9X<$100

Duke

Invested

$31.55

Value

$34.18

PnL

+$2.63

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Miami (FL)

Invested

$3.8

Value

$2.83

PnL

-$0.97

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralDuke at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Duke

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Duke. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMiami (FL) 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedDuke 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Duke 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Duke wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.