Spread: St. Thomas (-14.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold St. Thomas (33%) · St. Thomas at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

St. Thomas56¢Drake44¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

St. Thomas

Consensus Traders

St. Thomas 33%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$32.2

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 56.5¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSt. Thomas at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

St. Thomas

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

St. Thomas56%

Drake44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

St. Thomas3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,667

Combined PnL+$236.55

Drake6 traders

Total Value$766.17

Total Shares1,744

Combined PnL-$204.35

St. Thomas — 33%Drake — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	St. Thomasavg 50.7¢	$2.6K	$855.36	+$190.31	51% 568-535 (1103)
GA Gaditima	St. Thomasavg 49.4¢	$422.15	$452.89	+$30.74	48% 278-299 (577)
38 38791873984189CTR	Drakeavg 48¢	$526.64	$352.75	-$35.89	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LI LimousinCTR	Drakeavg 47¢	$183.57	$171.85	-$11.72	36% 950-1657 (2607)
HO HomeRunHazard	St. Thomasavg 47.8¢	$142.81	$158.31	+$15.5	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Drakeavg 50¢	$121.64	$107.04	-$14.6	37% 985-1642 (2627)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Drakeavg 49.1¢	$110.09	$98.71	-$11.38	43% 182-242 (424)
VeryLucky888CTR	Drakeavg 50.5¢	$1.0K	$34.36	-$130.24	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Drakeavg 51.5¢	$5.46	$1.46	-$0.52	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

nigiri99

St. Thomas

Invested

$2,571.05

Value

$855.36

PnL

+$190.31

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

Gaditima

St. Thomas

Invested

$422.15

Value

$452.89

PnL

+$30.74

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

38791873984189CTR

Drake

Invested

$526.64

Value

$352.75

PnL

-$35.89

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

LimousinCTR

Drake

Invested

$183.57

Value

$171.85

PnL

-$11.72

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

HomeRunHazard

St. Thomas

Invested

$142.81

Value

$158.31

PnL

+$15.5

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

MadridTimeCTR

Drake

Invested

$121.64

Value

$107.04

PnL

-$14.6

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Drake

Invested

$110.09

Value

$98.71

PnL

-$11.38

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

VeryLucky888CTR

Drake

Invested

$1,009.99

Value

$34.36

PnL

-$130.24

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Drake

Invested

$5.46

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.52

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralSt. Thomas at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

St. Thomas

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that St. Thomas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.