Spread: Delaware State (-1.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Delaware State (40%) · Delaware State at 55¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31

Delaware State55¢Norfolk State45¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Delaware State

Consensus Traders

Delaware State 40%

Total Value

$10.8K

Combined PnL

$190.29

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 55¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralDelaware State at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Delaware State

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Delaware State55%

Norfolk State45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Delaware State2 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares12,742

Combined PnL+$380.48

Norfolk State3 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares8,586

Combined PnL-$190.19

Delaware State — 40%Norfolk State — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986	Delaware Stateavg 50.5¢	$12.7K	$6.8K	+$379.87	49% 152-157 (309)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Norfolk Stateavg 49¢	$8.0K	$3.7K	-$200.14	53% 396-351 (747)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Norfolk Stateavg 45¢	$180	$184	+$4	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
HI hithitfarCTR	Norfolk Stateavg 43¢	$170.04	$79.07	+$5.95	57% 597-447 (1044)
GH ghorrock<$100	Delaware Stateavg 52.4¢	$29.79	$30.39	+$0.6	57% 13766-10533 (24299)

mde4life1986

Delaware State

Invested

$12,684.73

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$379.87

Record

49%

152-157 (309)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$8,016.29

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$200.14

Record

53%

396-351 (747)

topdogbigboiCTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$180

Value

$184

PnL

+$4

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

hithitfarCTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$170.04

Value

$79.07

PnL

+$5.95

Record

57%

597-447 (1044)

ghorrock<$100

Delaware State

Invested

$29.79

Value

$30.39

PnL

+$0.6

Record

57%

13766-10533 (24299)

Research grade

NeutralDelaware State at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Delaware State

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Delaware State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.