Delaware State vs. Norfolk State

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Delaware State (43%) · Delaware State at 54¢ · $29K held · ends Oct 31

Delaware State54¢Norfolk State46¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Delaware State

Consensus Traders

Delaware State 43%

Total Value

$29.2K

Combined PnL

$82.58

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 54¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralDelaware State at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Delaware State

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Delaware State54%

Norfolk State46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Delaware State3 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares46,092

Combined PnL+$289.4

Norfolk State4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares9,809

Combined PnL-$206.82

Delaware State — 43%Norfolk State — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Delaware State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorfolk State 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Norfolk State 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MD mde4life1986	Delaware Stateavg 52.9¢	$24.3K	$24.6K	+$286.55	49% 152-157 (309)
FO forecastication4CTR	Norfolk Stateavg 48¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$144.85	49% 1160-1196 (2356)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Norfolk Stateavg 49¢	$934.3	$886.64	-$57.18	53% 396-351 (747)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Norfolk Stateavg 46.5¢	$511.5	$512.01	+$0.52	49% 7853-8150 (16003)
OD OddstormCTR	Norfolk Stateavg 46¢	$463.48	$468.24	-$5.31	39% 410-654 (1064)
HI hithitfar<$100	Delaware Stateavg 53¢	$90.12	$92.67	+$2.55	57% 597-447 (1044)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Delaware Stateavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.7	+$0.3	50% 7014-7005 (14019)

mde4life1986

Delaware State

Invested

$24,278.8

Value

$24.6K

PnL

+$286.55

Record

49%

152-157 (309)

forecastication4CTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$2,781.12

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$144.85

Record

49%

1160-1196 (2356)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$934.3

Value

$886.64

PnL

-$57.18

Record

53%

396-351 (747)

topdogbigboiCTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$511.5

Value

$512.01

PnL

+$0.52

Record

49%

7853-8150 (16003)

OddstormCTR

Norfolk State

Invested

$463.48

Value

$468.24

PnL

-$5.31

Record

39%

410-654 (1064)

hithitfar<$100

Delaware State

Invested

$90.12

Value

$92.67

PnL

+$2.55

Record

57%

597-447 (1044)

Forecastication2<$100

Delaware State

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

7014-7005 (14019)

Research grade

NeutralDelaware State at 54%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Delaware State

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Delaware State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorfolk State 57% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Norfolk State 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Delaware State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.