Delaware vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 73.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 60¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 29%
$4.6K
-$98.27
72.1¢ → 59.5¢
-18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Overavg 73¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$20.16 | 52% 43-40 (83) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 27¢ | $811.61 | $796.58 | -$15.03 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 34.4¢ | $639.94 | $586.27 | -$53.67 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 49¢ | $236.06 | $193.05 | -$43.01 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 41.1¢ | $46.91 | $42.18 | -$4.73 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $6.45 | $6.55 | +$0.1 | 46% 1040-1234 (2274) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $6.3 | -$2.1 | 59% 44384-30773 (75157) |
Invested
$2,943.84
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$20.16
Record
52%
43-40 (83)
RN1CTRInvested
$811.61
Value
$796.58
PnL
-$15.03
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
Invested
$639.94
Value
$586.27
PnL
-$53.67
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$236.06
Value
$193.05
PnL
-$43.01
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Invested
$46.91
Value
$42.18
PnL
-$4.73
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$6.45
Value
$6.55
PnL
+$0.1
Record
46%
1040-1234 (2274)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$6.3
PnL
-$2.1
Record
59%
44384-30773 (75157)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.