Delaware vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 61.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 95¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$4.6K
-$888.01
43.2¢ → 95¢
+120% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Mastermoney | Overavg 38.7¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$0 | 47% 201-230 (431) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Underavg 61¢ | $899.99 | $663.93 | -$236.06 | 51% 3888-3808 (7696) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 36.7¢ | $406.1 | $498.27 | +$92.17 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
FO forecastication4CTR | Underavg 62¢ | $1.7K | $491.47 | -$541.45 | 49% 1112-1141 (2253) |
 RN1 | Overavg 87¢ | $534.35 | $337.8 | -$196.54 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 61.5¢ | $67.64 | $71.55 | +$3.91 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $41.04 | $31.35 | -$9.69 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 56.5¢ | $13.07 | $12.73 | -$0.34 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
Invested
$2,500
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
201-230 (431)
Invested
$899.99
Value
$663.93
PnL
-$236.06
Record
51%
3888-3808 (7696)
Invested
$406.1
Value
$498.27
PnL
+$92.17
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$1,666
Value
$491.47
PnL
-$541.45
Record
49%
1112-1141 (2253)
RN1Invested
$534.35
Value
$337.8
PnL
-$196.54
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
Invested
$67.64
Value
$71.55
PnL
+$3.91
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
Invested
$41.04
Value
$31.35
PnL
-$9.69
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$13.07
Value
$12.73
PnL
-$0.34
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.