Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Delaware vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 59.5
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (17%) · Under at 4.5¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 17%
$3.1K
$348.78
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 37.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$467.01 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 42¢ | $420 | $500 | -$20 | 58% 40527-29300 (69827) |
 RN1 | Overavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
TA takeormake | Overavg 70.5¢ | $329.75 | $234 | -$95.75 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $57.2 | $71.5 | -$0.72 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 58.9¢ | $11.65 | $9.89 | -$1.77 | 57% 12984-9900 (22884) |
Invested
$1,350.38
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$467.01
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
VeryLucky888Invested
$420
Value
$500
PnL
-$20
Record
58%
40527-29300 (69827)
RN1Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
Invested
$329.75
Value
$234
PnL
-$95.75
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$57.2
Value
$71.5
PnL
-$0.72
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$9.89
PnL
-$1.77
Record
57%
12984-9900 (22884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.