Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Delaware vs. Western Kentucky: O/U 57.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$2.7K
-$8.92
49.3¢ → 46.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR | Overavg 50¢ | $1,000 | $980 | -$20 | 54% 568-482 (1050) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Underavg 51¢ | $602.82 | $602.82 | +$0 | 46% 403-472 (875) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $481.99 | $487.05 | +$5.06 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 50¢ | $395.47 | $403.33 | +$7.86 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $192.45 | $190.6 | -$1.85 | 54% 16740-14044 (30784) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.5¢ | $44.13 | $44.14 | +$0 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$980
PnL
-$20
Record
54%
568-482 (1050)
Invested
$602.82
Value
$602.82
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
403-472 (875)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$481.99
Value
$487.05
PnL
+$5.06
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$395.47
Value
$403.33
PnL
+$7.86
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
Invested
$192.45
Value
$190.6
PnL
-$1.85
Record
54%
16740-14044 (30784)
Invested
$44.13
Value
$44.14
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.