Spread: Western Kentucky (-7.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Delaware (60%) · Delaware at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Delaware
5
Delaware 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$91.57
69.6¢ → 88¢
+26% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDelaware at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 43.3¢ | $446.29 | $428.13 | -$18.16 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
| └ Western Kentucky leg | Western Kentuckyavg 43.3¢ | $241.53 | $231.57 | -$9.96 | |
| └ Delaware leg | Delawareavg 60.9¢ | $204.76 | $196.56 | -$8.2 | |
28 2829 | Delawareavg 69.5¢ | $389.2 | $222.3 | -$35.5 | 45% 394-478 (872) |
UP UpTheBlues | Delawareavg 72¢ | $266.76 | $216.74 | -$50.02 | 59% 44384-30773 (75157) |
PR primmCTR | Western Kentuckyavg 42.3¢ | $215.74 | $214.01 | -$1.73 | 46% 1040-1234 (2274) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Delawareavg 61¢ | $61 | $58.5 | -$2.5 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 48¢ | $13.43 | $11.61 | -$1.82 | 62% 2179-1322 (3501) |
Invested
$446.29
Value
$428.13
PnL
-$18.16
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Both legs:
Invested
$389.2
Value
$222.3
PnL
-$35.5
Record
45%
394-478 (872)
Invested
$266.76
Value
$216.74
PnL
-$50.02
Record
59%
44384-30773 (75157)
Invested
$215.74
Value
$214.01
PnL
-$1.73
Record
46%
1040-1234 (2274)
Invested
$61
Value
$58.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Invested
$13.43
Value
$11.61
PnL
-$1.82
Record
62%
2179-1322 (3501)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.