Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Western Kentucky, while the market favors Delaware (60%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Western Kentucky (-3.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Western Kentucky (50%) · Western Kentucky at 41¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Western Kentucky
6
Western Kentucky 50%
$4.6K
-$299.31
50.9¢ → 40.5¢
-20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralWestern Kentucky at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Western Kentucky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lightotunnel35 | Delawareavg 57¢ | $2.0K | $1.5K | -$496.4 | 52% 43-40 (83) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Western Kentuckyavg 42.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$291.31 | 58% 40527-29300 (69827) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Western Kentuckyavg 61.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.3K | -$97.85 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Delawareavg 43.4¢ | $232.66 | $230.72 | -$1.94 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Delawareavg 57¢ | $46.11 | $45.58 | -$0.53 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 43¢ | $26.23 | $32.33 | +$6.1 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
Invested
$2,021.07
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$496.4
Record
52%
43-40 (83)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,208.96
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$291.31
Record
58%
40527-29300 (69827)
Invested
$1,400.82
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$97.85
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$232.66
Value
$230.72
PnL
-$1.94
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Invested
$46.11
Value
$45.58
PnL
-$0.53
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
Invested
$26.23
Value
$32.33
PnL
+$6.1
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.