Spread: Western Kentucky (-2.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Western Kentucky (44%) · Western Kentucky at 56¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 27

Western Kentucky56¢Delaware44¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Kentucky

Consensus Traders

Western Kentucky 44%

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$410.4

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 56.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Kentucky at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Kentucky

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Western Kentucky56%

Delaware44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Kentucky4 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares21,261

Combined PnL-$99.72

Delaware5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares12,649

Combined PnL+$510.12

Western Kentucky — 44%Delaware — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Western Kentucky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDelaware 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Kentucky 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedDelaware 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Delaware 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KA KaneAnalytics	Western Kentuckyavg 61¢	$7.3K	$6.2K	$-1.1K	53% 346-311 (657)
IC ic4cream	Western Kentuckyavg 51¢	$3.5K	$4.4K	+$983.26	59% 2599-1830 (4429)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Delawareavg 45.6¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$61.13	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
RN1CTR	Delawareavg 39¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$453.24	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
FO Forecastication2	Western Kentuckyavg 50¢	$277.5	$288.6	+$11.1	50% 6756-6757 (13513)
JU justaluckydude	Western Kentuckyavg 63.4¢	$182.22	$159.55	-$22.67	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
PL pltrkr111CTR<$100	Delawareavg 49¢	$96.08	$94.12	-$1.96	54% 711-605 (1316)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Delawareavg 50¢	$52	$49.92	-$2.08	54% 2891-2482 (5373)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Delawareavg 49¢	$10.43	$10.22	-$0.21	58% 27917-20560 (48477)

KaneAnalytics

Western Kentucky

Invested

$7,261.81

Value

$6.2K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

53%

346-311 (657)

ic4cream

Western Kentucky

Invested

$3,462.74

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$983.26

Record

59%

2599-1830 (4429)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Delaware

Invested

$3,996.15

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$61.13

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

RN1CTR

Delaware

Invested

$1,963.27

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$453.24

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

Forecastication2

Western Kentucky

Invested

$277.5

Value

$288.6

PnL

+$11.1

Record

50%

6756-6757 (13513)

justaluckydude

Western Kentucky

Invested

$182.22

Value

$159.55

PnL

-$22.67

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

pltrkr111CTR<$100

Delaware

Invested

$96.08

Value

$94.12

PnL

-$1.96

Record

54%

711-605 (1316)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Delaware

Invested

$52

Value

$49.92

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

2891-2482 (5373)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Delaware

Invested

$10.43

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$0.21

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Kentucky at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Western Kentucky

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Western Kentucky. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleDelaware 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Kentucky 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedDelaware 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Delaware 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Kentucky wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.