Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Western Kentucky, while the market favors Delaware (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Delaware (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Western Kentucky (60%) · Western Kentucky at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Western Kentucky
5
Western Kentucky 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$81.01
57.4¢ → 43.5¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralWestern Kentucky at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Delaware 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Western Kentuckyavg 57.8¢ | $726.83 | $868.03 | +$141.2 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
 RN1 | Delawareavg 42¢ | $337.37 | $249.01 | -$88.36 | 54% 55451-47514 (102965) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 65¢ | $193.37 | $182.64 | -$10.73 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
| └ Delaware leg | Delawareavg 41¢ | $75.08 | $116.21 | +$41.13 | |
| └ Western Kentucky leg | Western Kentuckyavg 65¢ | $118.29 | $66.43 | -$51.86 | |
TO torta.tech | Delawareavg 43¢ | $109.65 | $122.4 | +$12.75 | 63% 7957-4739 (12696) |
PU purplegattoCTR<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 51¢ | $40.8 | $55.2 | +$14.4 | 50% 5748-5850 (11598) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Western Kentuckyavg 52¢ | $3.12 | $4.14 | +$1.02 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
Invested
$726.83
Value
$868.03
PnL
+$141.2
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
RN1Invested
$337.37
Value
$249.01
PnL
-$88.36
Record
54%
55451-47514 (102965)
Invested
$193.37
Value
$182.64
PnL
-$10.73
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.65
Value
$122.4
PnL
+$12.75
Record
63%
7957-4739 (12696)
Invested
$40.8
Value
$55.2
PnL
+$14.4
Record
50%
5748-5850 (11598)
Invested
$3.12
Value
$4.14
PnL
+$1.02
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.